On July 21, 2021, President Joe Biden said during a CNN town hall, “You’re not going to get COVID if you have these vaccinations.”
I think he meant to say that vaccinated people are less likely to be hospitalized and die, but then again, he's a politician, so it's hard to know what he really wanted to communicate. Plus, he is likely experiencing a cognitive decline.
A recent study of half a million individuals, "A Potential Association between COVID-19 Vaccination and Development of Alzheimer’s Disease," has found that within three months post-vaccination, the odds of developing Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) were notably higher in the mRNA vaccine group compared to the unvaccinated group.
Specifically, the odds ratio for AD was 1.225 (22.5% higher), and for MCI, it was 2.377 (237.7% increase in likelihood). The researchers calculated the probability of such significant increases to be 0.026 for AD and less than 0.001 (1 in a thousand) for AD.
Now, we can't say whether President Biden has MCI or AD, much less whether or not his vaccinations had any impact on his cognitive function.
What we do know is that President Biden has received six COVID-19 vaccinations and has tested positive for COVID-19 three times in the past two years.
We'll leave it at that when it comes to President Biden, but the study has a range of interesting implications for health policy and related risk management. Utilizing data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service, the researchers analyzed a random 50% sample of Seoul residents aged 65 and above, totaling 558,017 individuals.
Participants were divided into vaccinated and unvaccinated groups, with a focus on those who received mRNA, cDNA, or heterologous vaccines. The study employed multivariable logistic regression and Cox regression models to examine the incidence of AD and MCI post-vaccination, finding a significantly higher incidence of these conditions in vaccinated individuals, particularly those receiving mRNA vaccines.
ABOUT THE STUDY
The study "A Potential Association between COVID-19 Vaccination and Development of Alzheimer’s Disease" by Jee Hoon Roh, Inha Jung, Yunsun Suh, and Min-Ho Kim, published in QJM: An International Journal of Medicine, investigates the correlation between COVID-19 vaccination and the onset of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI).
Data Source and Population:
The study used data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service.
It included a random 50% sample of Seoul residents aged 65 and above, totaling 558,017 individuals.
Participants were divided into vaccinated and unvaccinated groups.
Types of Vaccines:
The vaccinated group received mRNA (191,970), cDNA (320,135), or heterologous (7,225) vaccines.
Analytical Methods:
The study employed multivariable logistic regression and Cox regression models to analyze the data.
Results:
An increased incidence of MCI and AD was observed in vaccinated individuals, especially those who received mRNA vaccines, within three months post-vaccination.
The mRNA vaccine group had a significantly higher incidence of AD (OR: 1.225; 95% CI: 1.025–1.464; P = 0.026) and MCI (OR: 2.377; 95% CI: 1.845–3.064; P < 0.001) compared to the unvaccinated group.
No significant relationship was found with vascular dementia or Parkinson’s disease.
Conclusions
The evidence suggests a potential link between COVID-19 vaccination, particularly mRNA vaccines, and increased incidences of AD and MCI.
The findings indicate a potential association between COVID-19 vaccination, particularly with mRNA vaccines, and an increased incidence of AD and MCI in the elderly population.
Study Limitations:
The study is observational and thus can only show correlation, not causation.
The data is specific to South Korea, and results may not be generalizable to other populations.
Implications:
If further research confirms these findings, they could have significant implications for vaccine policies, especially for the elderly.
It also highlights the importance of monitoring the long-term neurological effects of vaccines.
RISK MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS
This study and its findings illustrate several critical elements of risk management.
Risk Identification:
The study identifies potential risks associated with COVID-19 vaccination, specifically the increased incidence of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in vaccinated individuals. Identifying such risks is the first step in the risk management process.
Risk Assessment and Analysis:
By using multivariable logistic regression and Cox regression models, the study assesses and analyzes the risk, determining the likelihood (odds ratios) and significance (p-values) of developing AD and MCI post-vaccination. This quantitative analysis helps in understanding the magnitude and probability of the risk.
Risk Communication:
The publication of the study and its dissemination to the public and medical community is a form of risk communication. It ensures that stakeholders are informed about the potential risks associated with COVID-19 vaccination, enabling them to make more informed decisions.
Risk Monitoring and Review:
The study highlights the need for continuous monitoring and further research into the long-term neurological impacts of COVID-19 vaccines. Ongoing risk monitoring is essential to identify any emerging trends or changes in the risk profile over time.
Risk Mitigation:
Although the study primarily focuses on identification and analysis, it implicitly calls for risk mitigation strategies, such as conducting further research, revising vaccination guidelines, or implementing additional safety measures for vulnerable populations.
Uncertainty Management:
The study acknowledges uncertainties, such as the need for more research to establish causation and the potential for long-term effects that were not captured within the study period. Managing these uncertainties is a key aspect of effective risk management.
Application to Risk Management
Proactive Risk Management:
Identifying and assessing potential risks proactively, as illustrated by this study, allows for early intervention and the development of strategies to mitigate adverse outcomes.
Evidence-Based Decision Making:
The use of statistical models and large datasets underscores the importance of evidence-based decision-making in risk management. Decisions should be grounded in robust data and thorough analysis.
Stakeholder Engagement:
Effective risk communication ensures that all relevant stakeholders, including policymakers, healthcare providers, and the public, are aware of potential risks and can participate in risk mitigation efforts.
In summary, this study exemplifies how rigorous risk management practices—such as identification, assessment, communication, monitoring, and mitigation—can be applied in a real-world context to address potential public health risks associated with COVID-19 vaccination.
It also raises serious questions about the quality of risk management when these vaccines were being developed and promoted. For more details and a scholarly look at this study, I recommend Dr. John Campbell's presentation on this topic.
Yorumlar