JULIAN TALBOT

ALARP is one of the fundamental principles of risk management. It is often also referred to as SFARP or SFAIRP (so far as is reasonably practicable). What the terms mean ALARP: “As Low As Reasonably Practicable”. Focuses on reducing risk to the lowest level that is reasonably achievable, typically by comparing risk levels against target or tolerable criteria, in the context of available resources. SFAIRP (or SFARP): “So Far As Is Reasonably Practicable”. Focuses on taking al

Turning analysis into court-ready material — Part 3 of 3 If you haven’t read the previous articles, please start with the first in the series or go to the second article if you have read the first. They explain how the Structured Evidence Analysis Matrix (SEAM) works — the analytical engine borrowed from intelligence tradecraft, and the adaptations that make it fit for legal use. This final article covers what turns that analysis into something a court can rely on. Here

How the Structured Evidence Analysis Matrix works — Part 2 of 3 If you haven’t read the previous article, please read this one first. It introduces the case study this series is built around: a contested court matter with cross-allegations, a documentary record running to thousands of pages, and a client who needed the court to see the wood for the trees. In Part 1, I described the outcome: seventeen evidence items, three competing accounts, and a one-page result showin

A case study in structured evidence analysis — Part 1 of 3 This is the first article in a three-part series introducing the Structured Evidence Analysis Matrix (SEAM), a method I developed for testing competing accounts against the documentary record in contested legal matters. Consider a person accused of stealing a car. They hold a driver’s licence. They knew where the car was kept. They had access to a key. Every one of those facts is consistent with guilt. Every one is al

When an accident is serious, tragic, and technically complex, the hardest task is often not collecting information, but making sense of competing explanations. Different witnesses see different things. Technical systems interact in ways that are not obvious. Early narratives can harden before the evidence is fully examined. NOTE: The MRH-90 incident is a real-world example of a tragic event. This ACH example is broadly accurate but is no substitute for the actual report findi

For more insights into ACH & related topics, click here. In litigation, coronial inquiries, and high-stakes policy disputes, the hardest problem is rarely a lack of information. It is the opposite: too many facts, too many narratives, and too many incentives pushing decision-makers toward a preferred explanation long before the evidence has been properly weighed. Once a narrative takes hold, everything that follows tends to be interpreted through it. Contradictory facts are m

When people hear the phrase risk assessment, they often imagine a spreadsheet, a heat map, or a list of obvious hazards ranked from red to green. In routine operational settings, that may be sufficient. In the context of a lobby effort, a coronial inquiry, or litigation, it is not even close. In these environments, risk assessment is not an administrative task. It is a discipline of structured reasoning under uncertainty, carried out in full view of sceptical decision-makers

Following on from my previous post, Risk Communication Issues, if we want to understand why otherwise knowledgeable health professionals...

On July 21, 2021, President Joe Biden said during a CNN town hall, “ You’re not going to get COVID if you have these vaccinations . ” I...

Risk is complicated, right? That's partly because the fundamentals are often overlooked. The Stroud Matrix is my attempt to take a step...

It has taken me 20 years to work out the process for writing and publishing quality books. Here is that process.

Artificial intelligence risks are not technological or ethical issues but are fundamentally driven by species-level evolutionary survival...

In the 21st century, the era of artificial intelligence and genetic engineering, we should expect to encounter ‘swans’ of all shapes,...

The advice to "trust your gut" is often given as a standalone solution to complex decisions. However, this oversimplifies a nuanced...

We've heard of the all hazards approach to risk management. But what of it's counterpart, the all opportunities approach? Maybe another...

Human beings have great difficulty in making accurate judgments under uncertainty. Often, we must make difficult decisions when reliable...

The ISO31000 definition of risk (the effect of uncertainty on objectives) includes both positive and negative outcomes. This is at odds...

A SWOT analysis, standing for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats, is a strategic planning tool that can be crucial for...

It's not just you. Time seems to go by faster for everyone as we age. This can have all sorts of weird side effects, and impact the way...

In security risk management, the ability to adapt and respond to ever-evolving threats is paramount. This article describes some powerful...

In the complex and unpredictable landscape of modern business, risk management stands as a beacon guiding organizations toward...

Scenario workshops are invaluable for envisioning plausible futures and formulating strategies to navigate them. However, the success of...

Risk matrices have become ubiquitous in the business world. Risk matrices are a go-to approach for evaluating and prioritizing risks from...

Governance, risk, and compliance (GRC) is a broad term that refers to the processes and systems an organization puts in place to ensure...