This blog is actually a webinar on artificial intelligence that I gave for the Risk Management Institution of Australasia (RMIA). My premise was that AI is developing so fast that addressing current risks is grossly insufficient. Things are changing too quickly, and we need to prepare for AI evolution decades into the future if we are to manage the risks.
"I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." - Wayne Gretzky.
As for the rest of us, we are barely keeping up with where the AI puck is right now. We will see more change in the next ten years than in the past 100 years. When it comes to AI, we don't have the luxury of dealing with today's risks. The growth we expect in AI over the next ten years could come any day now.
In the presentation, I explain why AI is NOT an existential risk. I also talk about why consciousness in AI is a complete red herring, lay out a framework called the WANE hypothesis for identifying risks as AI evolves, and more.
I also lay out my assessment that the worst-case scenario is a 75,000-year delay in the evolution of homo sapiens. Catastrophic perhaps for the 8 billion of us, but not an existential threat.
I hope you enjoy the presentation. Feel free to get in touch if you have any questions about the content or AI in general.